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金融assignment:埃及中央银行的政策

时间:2016-01-14 11:04来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien
埃及中央银行通过矛盾政策维持经济稳定
 
2008年期间,埃及的经济非常不稳定被称为The Triple Fs Crisis,这次危机重创了埃及经济尤其是在燃料、食物和金融方面。因此,CBE(埃及中央银行)采取了至关重要的货币政策,该政策是由Farouk el Oqda博士领导的。 The Triple Fs Crisis受到 WFP(世界粮食计划署)的干预, 2008年食物开始疯狂涨价,几乎所有地区的小麦都由LE 350 涨到 LE 800。同时,大米也由原先的LE 400 涨到 LE 1200。同时,贫困人口占总人口的40%,就业和工资的不良情况拉低了埃及的整个生活水准。此外,燃油价格的大幅增长导致运输成本提高,又加速了食品价格高涨,特别是在埃及,该国每年进口的700万吨小麦占了粮食需求的40%。因此,这限制了人们的营养来源。此外,在全球经济中发生的大规模金融危机确实对国内经济影响很大,因为埃及的贸易市场与全球市场有很大关系。考虑到以上原因,CBE推出了一系列旨在保护国内经济免受金融危机影响的货币政策。
 
Policies of the central bank of egypt埃及中央银行通过矛盾政策维持经济稳定
 
During the year 2008, the Egyptian economy witnessed major instability called The Triple Fs Crisis (Bordignon) as the economy was hardly hit in terms of Fuel, Food and Finance. Hence, the CBE (Central Bank of Egypt) adopted vital monetary policies that were smartly led by Dr. Farouk el Oqda, governor of the CBE. The Triple Fs Crisis was referred to by the WFP (World Food Programme) stating that food prices witnessed a dramatic increase in 2008 that reached 100% where the price of wheat increased from LE 350 to LE 800 as well as the rice which increased from LE 400 to LE 1200. Yet, the population, in which 40% represents poverty, did not experience an improvement in terms of jobs and income salaries resulting in lowering the Egyptian standards of living (Bordignon). In addition, a huge increase in fuel prices occurred resulting in a major escalation in transportation costs and therefore adding an additional upsurge to the food prices, especially that in the case of Egypt, the country imports 7 million tons of wheat annually in addition to 40% of its food needs (Bordignon) . Consequently, this limited the accessibility of the population to sources of nutrition. Besides, the massive financial crisis that took place in the global economy indeed had its effect on the domestic economy as the Egyptian market is greatly related to the global markets in terms of trade. As a result to all of the above factors, the CBE launched a series of monetary policies that aimed to protect the economy against the 3 sorts of crises.
 
The Effect of Food Crisis on Monetary Policies:货币政策对粮食危机的影响
 
One of the main steps taken by the central bank was to start adopting the Core Inflation method as a measure of inflation instead of solely focusing on the Headline CPI. Basically, Headline CPI is a way of determining the fluctuating weighted prices of the "consumption basket purchased by households" where the weights determine the level of consumption of the goods and services periodically. As a matter of fact, Core CPI is not a measure that replaces Headline CPI measure, but is a variant of the latter measure that depends on excluding highly volatile price shocks that occur to some goods and services; causing policymakers to face difficulties in determining and sorting out short run variability from more persistent price signals. Therefore, the CBE was able to represent another dynamic of inflation rate that can easily be understood by the public through excluding fruits and vegetables due to their dependency on climate and harvest circumstances, representing about 8.8% of the CPI basket, as well as regulated items, carrying 19.4% of the basket (CBE Monthly Inflation Note).
Due to the impact of the Triple F Crisis, particularly food prices and the accompanying effect of fuel prices on it, starting from February 2009 a major drop occurred in terms of Core inflation figures in comparison to the changes that the headline CPI witnessed. The drop in Core CPI recorded an annual decrease by 7.2% in comparison to the 0.3% decline in the Headline CPI. Hence, "the tame pace of increase in core prices compared to the sharp pace of increase in the prices of volatile food items, namely fruits & vegetables" was clearly shown in the magnitude difference between both measures of inflation during the year 2009 (CBE Monthly Inflation Note).
To be more specific in analyzing the increase of headline inflation, during the 3rd quarter of 2009, the CBE stated that 68% of the increase was due to the 30.9% escalation in the prices of fruits and vegetables. In addition, it is worth mentioning that during the first nine months of 2009, headline inflation reported 4.9% in comparison to 15.6% reported during the first nine months of 2008. In general, about 57% of the headline CPI increase during 2009 was due to severe inflation in food items (CBE Monthly Inflation Note).
 
货币政策对金融危机的影响-The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Monetary Policies:
 
A major smart step that the CBE took in order to shield the economy against the effects of the financial crisis was adopting a contractual monetary policy. While most of the countries worldwide were applying expansionary policies aiming to combat recession, the Central Bank of Egypt implemented a contractual monetary policy that planned to decrease money supply, increase discount rates and therefore decreasing inflation. Despite the opposition that the CBE faced by economists in applying this policy during a financial crisis, the CBE was actually keen on decreasing the skyrocketing food prices that could have cause undesirable consequences.(责任编辑:anne)


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