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金融领域和现实之间的脱节

时间:2016-03-11 08:48来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien

金融领域和现实之间的脱节
Disconnection Between Real And Financial Spheres


强烈的波动是金融市场特征的词,最近几年,叶子认为股票价格之间存在的差异和他们的基本价值观,使我们假设一个脱节真正领域的金融(下肢痉挛性(1999、2000、2004))。本文的目的是把重点放在这可能断开使用协整测试,来检测可能的平衡关系证交所回报和来衡量真正的经济活动增长(GDP)。研究的时期是在1969年至2008年之间,根据每年两个系列的频率:实际收益率(股票市场指数回报)和GDP的增长率(真实经济领域指标)来研究。解决短期和长期的动态证交所回报和GDP增长之间的,我们使用了向量误差修正模型(结果)。我们的结果证实了两者之间的断开的存在金融和经济系列。

当然是股票市场价格波动与经济联系在一起的,这一事实证实了当前的金融和经济危机是2008年10月。从理论上说,股票价格预期是基于经济基本面。在宏观经济层面,这些期望很大程度上取决于市场的预期未来经济增长水平。事实上,金融市场可以看作一种经济的领先指标。因此,股票价格运动的解释必须根据经济指标的波动。

过去的几年里已经被一些投机性事故特征影响了世界各地的金融市场。很多解释基于基本面得到,本质上由Balke和Wohar(2001),卡尔森和萨金特(1997),希顿和卢卡斯(2000),Kopcke(1997),McGrattan和普雷斯科特(2000)。相反,其他作者像下肢痉挛性席勒(1999、2000、2004)和(2000),认为股票价格波动不能解释为基础但外生投机泡沫的结果或一个非理性繁荣。

The strong volatility that characterized financial markets all over the word, these last years, leaves to think the existence of a disparity between stock prices and their fundamental values, which gives us the presumption of a disconnection between the real sphere and the financial one (Binswanger ( 1999, 2000, 2004 )). The purpose of this paper is to focus on this possible disconnection by using the cointegration tests, to detect a possible equilibrium relation between the stock exchange returns and the real economic activity growth (measured by the GDP). The period of study lies between 1969 and 2008, according to an annual frequency of two series: the real yields (Stock Market Index return) and of GDP growth rates (real economic sphere indicator). To settle on the dynamics of short and long term between the stock exchange returns and the GDP growth, we used the Vector Errors Correction Model (VECM). Our results corroborate the existence of the disconnection between the two financial and economic series.

Introduction——简介

Stock market prices fluctuations are certainly linked with economic ones, this fact was confirmed by the present financial and economic crisis of October 2008. Theoretically, stock price expectations are based on economic fundamentals. In a macroeconomic level, these anticipations depend largely on market expectation of future economic growth level. Indeed, financial market can be considered as a leading indicator of the economy. Consequently, stock price movement explanation must be held according to economic indicators’ fluctuations.(责任编辑:anne)



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