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管理学硕士essay:国际石油和天然气

时间:2016-02-03 09:09来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien

国际石油和天然气管理硕士
International oil and gas management

在任何国家的经济活动中能源是一个关键的组件。它不仅提高了生活质量,而且基本可持续发达国家和发展中国家的社会和经济发展。足够的安全,负担得起的可靠的能源供应是可持续发展一个必要的先决条件[1]。因此,能源安全是大多数政府主要关注的,因此仍然是顶级的议程。为了确保能源安全,它强制平衡供给和需求[2]。在大多数国家在发达和发展中经济体中化石燃料(原油)仍然是主要的能源。油价高,因此供应中断产生重大负面影响一切社会和经济活动特别是国家石油净进口国。这些国家面临的挑战总是要有足够的石油或石油产品的库存,以避免任何由于供应中断或价格变化导致的最终的冲击。

像许多发展中国家,能源的主要来源在肯尼亚和乌干达生物量和商业能源。使用生物质主要集中在农村地区,在该地区的能源结构中占总体的80%。使用商业能源另一方面主要集中在城市地区。下图展示了该地区的能源消费模式

肯尼亚和乌干达都严重依赖石油特别是交通部门和部分用于发电和商业目的。缺乏商业上可行的代用燃料仍然是运输行业对石油的依赖的主要原因。这两个国家是面临石油净进口国的挑战,确保有足够的石油产品的供应来满足各个经济领域的需求。这是对进口石油的依赖使强大的供应商不断接触这两个国家外部性的市场力量[4]。肯尼亚和乌干达通过印度洋蒙巴萨港从海湾地区进口原油和成品。有一个功能齐全的炼油厂在肯尼亚的蒙巴萨港收到进口原油,精制,后来通过石油管道输送到全国主要城镇[5]。

INTRODUCTION——简介

Energy is a key component of all economic activities in any country. It not only improves the quality of life but is fundamental for sustainable social and economic development in both the developed and developing countries. A secure - adequate, affordable and reliable - supply of energy is thus a necessary precondition for sustainable development[1]. Energy security is therefore a major concern of most governments and thus remains a top agenda. To ensure energy security, it's mandatory to have a well balanced supply and demand[2]. Fossil fuel (Crude Oil) still remains the main energy source in most countries both in the developed and developing economies. High oil prices and supply disruptions therefore have significant negative impacts on all social and economic activities especially to countries that are net oil importers. Such countries are faced with the challenge of always having enough stock of oil or oil products to avoid any ultimate shocks due to supply disruptions or price changes.

Like many developing countries, the main sources of energy in Kenya and Uganda are biomass and commercial energy sources. Biomass is used mainly in the rural areas and accounts for up to 80% of the overall energy mix in the region. Commercial energy sources on the other hand are used mainly in the urban areas. The figure below shows the energy sources consumption patterns in the region.

Kenya and Uganda are heavily dependent on oil especially in the transport sector and partially for electricity generation and commercial purposes. The lack of a commercially viable substitute fuel remains the main reason behind the over dependence on oil in the transport sector. These two countries are net oil importers faced with the challenge of ensuring there is enough supply of oil products to meet the demand of the various sectors of the economy. This over reliance on imported oil has constantly exposed these two countries to externalities of market power by the powerful suppliers[4]. Kenya and Uganda import crude oil and finished products from the Gulf region through the Indian Ocean to Mombasa Port. There is a fully functional Oil refinery at Kenya's Mombasa Port where the imported crude is received, refined and later on pumped to the major towns through a petroleum pipeline in the country[5]. Uganda being a land locked country relies to a greater extent on Kenya (some of the imports come through Dar es Salaam in Tanzania) for its oil import which is first refined at the Kenya Petroleum Refineries before being pumped through the Kenya Oil pipeline to the Eldoret fuel depot[6]. The products are then transported by road or rail from the depot to Uganda. This process has proved quite inefficient causing supply disruptions that finally impact all the socio - economic sectors in Uganda negatively. This inefficiency made the two governments draw a game plan to ensure efficient transportation of petroleum products to Uganda. These developments facilitated the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Kenya and Uganda that led to the establishment of a Joint Coordinating Commission (JCC) in 1995[7]. The JCC was charged with the responsibility of coordinating a feasibility study for constructing an oil pipeline from the Eldoret Depot in Kenya, an extension of the already existing Kenya pipeline, to a terminal to be constructed in Kampala, Uganda. In 1998 a feasibility study funded by the European Investment Bank (EIB) was conducted by JCC's consultants, Penspen Limited of UK. The report by the consultants presented in May 1999 concluded that the project was feasible and viable[8]. JCC was later on given the mandate in 2000 to implement the project. However due to time lapse between the feasibility study and the decision to go ahead with the project implementation, taking the dynamic nature of the oil and gas industry in these two countries, a second feasibility study was conducted funded by the two governments[9]. The report from the consultant, like in the first study, concluded that the project was still viable and could be taken to the next phase. JCC therefore made a decision to proceed with the project implementation on Public Private Partnership with the two governments having a share of 24.5% each and 51% for the private investor[10]

An invitation to Tender was floated inviting interested bidders internationally to bid for the execution of the project on BOOT basis for a period of 20 years. Tamoil East Africa Ltd (TEAL) won the bid in 2006 to finance and construct an 8 inch pipeline at a cost of US$78.2 million[11]. An agreement, The Heads of Agreement, between the two governments and TEAL was then signed in January 2007 to enable the investor to start the development phase of the project[12].

A number of developmental phase activities had to be completed before commencing the construction activities. These included the preparation of all the legal agreements affecting the Project, the pipeline Route Survey to determine the right of way, the Environmental Impact Assessment Study in compliance with the environmental laws in the two counties, updates of the Market Study and revised product demand forecast leading to optimum sizing of the pipeline and finally carrying out the Front End Engineering Design (FEED)[13]. The successful completion of the above phase was the main determinant of the project costs upon which the developer was expected to make a final investment decision to proceed with the construction phase of the project[14].

TEAL had finished all the tasks at the development phase by 2008 when large Oil discoveries were made in Uganda in commercial quantities[15]. This therefore meant the initial 8 inch pipeline design, having considered only one way flow from Kenya to Uganda, could only serve Uganda in the initial years before production begins and would be rendered inactive thereafter as the there will be need to transport oil from Uganda to the Neighboring countries and to the other international. With these new developments, JCC therefore considered a redesign of the pipeline to accommodate reverse pumping from either direction. This would satisfy Uganda's petroleum needs in the short run, importing fuel through Kenya, and finally in exporting its refined oil products to the other markets through the Kenyan Port of Mombasa.

A new financial analysis of the project based on the redesigned pipeline diameter was therefore necessary to capture the new CAPEX and projected throughput as this would have an impact on the project cash flow when product will be pumped from Uganda side. TEAL through its consultant, Matt MacDonald UK, finished the new design earlier this year and came up with the new project cost as shown in Table 1 in Annex 1( the table also shows the cost breakdown of the initial design)[16]. TEAL also carried out additional economic analysis to come up with a new tariff based on the new developments. TEAL was therefore faced with the challenge of carrying out a more detailed financial and project analysis to justify the viability of the project to its shareholders and to present the same to JCC for review and approval.

It is at this stage that I joined the company as an intern to assist the project team on various tasks but more specifically on the financial analysis of the project based on the new project developments and to analyze the effect of scope creep on the project's viability. This report aims at elaborating more on the tasks undertaken during the internship period. However the main task undertaken was working with the financial consultant of the company in carrying out the financial analysis of the project and finally discussing with the project team the impact of the changes in scope (scope creep) on project cost. A report of the analysis was presented to the project team with a summary of the model assumptions and results. The final investment decision was to be taken based on the findings and the results presented in the report[17]. This report gives a brief description of the project from inception to the status during the internship period in its first and second chapters. The third chapter focuses on the financial analysis carried in fulfillment of the allocated task. A brief of other tasks undertaken during the internship is given in the fourth chapter. The final chapter focuses on the conclusions and recommendations of the whole exercise highlighting the benefits of the internship both to the intern and the company. The conclusions details the key challenges of scope creep in effective project management. The report will be based on the information collected from the Project Information Memorandum (document available in TEAL's project office), earlier study reports in the project office, skills gained from different modules taken up during my training at CEPMLP and various text books.

CHAPTER 1——第一部分

1. Overview of the Project——项目概述

The need for adequate and reliable supply of oil products to Uganda at affordable cost was the key driver of the Kenya - Uganda Pipeline project. However this was also in line with the policies of the Kenyan government ensuring the country also benefits from the project. The key issues of the project are briefly mentioned in the following subsections. These include the main project drivers, the justification for the choice of having a public / private partnership, the economic policies in the two countries and the benefits of the project to the two countries.

1.1 Project Drivers——项目驱动

A reliability, efficiency and cost effective means of transportation of oil products to Uganda was the main project driver as already mentioned. In addition to that, there was a need to have a safe and an environmentally acceptable means of transportation of the products in line with the environmental laws in both countries[18]. Various transportation options discussed in the following chapters were considered and the pipeline emerged as the most cost effective option that satisfies the requirements above for both the current and future oil demand.

1.2 Economic Policies of Kenya and Uganda in relation to the Project——肯尼亚和乌干达的经济政策与项目

Both the GoK and GoU look forward to the successful completion of the pipeline project albeit their different economic policy drivers. Uganda's main policy behind the project is to ensure adequate, reliable and affordable supply of energy to the various sectors within its economy. On the other hand Kenya's main driver is the need to create more wealth and employment to its people. The economic policies of the two countries are highlighted below;

Uganda Economic Policies——乌干达的经济政策

The overall policy of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development Uganda is to “To ensure an adequate, reliable and affordable supply of quality petroleum products for all sectors of the economy at internationally competitive and fair prices within appropriate health, safety and environmental standards”[19]. The responsibilities of the MEMD Uganda include;

•Establishing the available energy resources within the country;
•Carrying out energy demand forecasting for the various sectors of the economy;
•To contribute to poverty eradication by increasing access to modern, affordable and reliable energy services to its people;
•Improving energy governance and administration;
•Stimulating economic development;
•Managing energy-related environmental impacts.

Kenya Economic Policies——肯尼亚的经济政策

Kenya has already established its petroleum pipeline network within the country managed by the Kenya Pipeline Corporation. Kenya economic policy supporting the project as mentioned above unlike in Uganda was based on the country's Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (ERSWEC) launched in 2003[20]. According to the laid down strategy, the state is expected to facilitate private sector growth and investment. The pipeline project will create a number of jobs from the construction phase through to operation. The KPC has also laid an additional pipeline to ensure there is sufficient product for export to Uganda and the neighboring countries[21]. This expansion leads to an increment in the Countries revenue hence satisfying the policy of wealth creation. On the other hand, one of the key objectives of the Kenya Ministry of Energy is to ensure petroleum products transported within the country and for export purposes is done in the most efficient way with minimal losses while maintaining the country's environmental and safety standard, a criteria satisfied by the project[22].

1.3 Public/Private Partnership——公私伙伴关系

Public Private Partnership (PPP) is where a public service is provided through a partnership of the public sector with one or more private companies. The private sector in most cases assumes financial, technical and operational obligations. However accountability remains with the public sector for the provision of that public service. PPP therefore enables most governments to improve on the delivery of public services and proper management of public facilities by sharing the financial obligations with other private investors. The private investor on the other hand gains from the partnership by earning a return on capital employed. The procurement of public services is greatly improved on PPP ventures. However, long term political commitment is mandatory for the success of PPP. Most infrastructure projects are capital intensive but the involvement of the private sector has enabled most countries world over to implement such projects. Figure 1.1 below shows the number and value of private participation in infrastructure projects by region between 1996 and 2006. From the figure it can be seen that other regions of the world have put up many infrastructure projects with private participation well ahead of Africa.

Some of the projects implemented under public private partnership in the region include the Songa Processing plant in Tanzania, Maputo port in Zimbabwe and Skida Desalination Plant in Algeria[24]. Energy sector projects are usually capital intensive and the returns take a relatively longer time to be realised. Most developing countries face financial challenges and can only rely on donors or investors for the funding and implementation of projects of this nature. This is the main reason behind the choice of Public/ Private Partnership for the Kenya Uganda Petroleum Products Pipeline Project implementation. The JCC came up with a mechanism to partner with a private investor for the implementation of the pipeline project. The investor's responsibility is to finance and operate the project on BOOT basis. The private investor on completion of the project will be expected to manage and operate the pipeline for a period of 20 years before finally transferring ownership and operations of the facility to the two governments. The two governments agreed to have a 49% equity shared equally between them leaving the investor with a 51% share[25]. This was aimed at facilitating the private investor's growth for faster economic development in line with the economic policies in the two countries. TEAL therefore partnered with the two governments having come up with the most competitive bid for the financing, construction and operation of the proposed pipeline project. The financial plan of the project is discussed in chapter three of this report. The cost of using the facility will be borne by the users and not the tax payers.

1.4 Benefits of the Project——项目的效益

Alternative options of transporting petroleum products to Uganda have been considered in the next chapter. These range from transportation by road tankers, rail wagons, marine ships or ferries and finally pipeline transport. A number of benefits of the pipeline project that were the key drivers have been outlined below[26];

•Secure and environmentally acceptable means of transportation of Petroleum products to the Uganda market;
•Provision of secure and easy access to supply of petroleum products to the other neighboring countries to Uganda;
•Reduction of road maintenance costs and reduction in the number of road accidents i.e. decongesting the roads;
•With a reliable supply of petroleum products, the oil marketers in Uganda will be able to maintain low stocks and reduce their costs resulting in low cost passed on to the consumers;
•The overall reduction in transportation cost will also lead to a reduction in the final market prices of the oil products;
•The pipeline will lead to a reduction in illegal product movement across the Kenya-Uganda border and ultimately prevent product adulteration which is common when products are transported by road tankers and finally,
•The pipeline will lead to a reduction on HIV prevalence among truck driver a situation that has become a national pandemic in the two countries.

CHAPTER 2——第二部分

2. Market analysis——市场分析

A number of market studies have been done in line with the Kenya Uganda Petroleum Products Pipeline Project. The most recent study was done in 2007 by TEAL through their consultant, Nexant Limited. The main objective of the study was to carryout petroleum products demand analysis and forecasting. The study was a development of the earlier studies carried out in 1999 and 2001. With an optimistic commencement of works by end of this year (2008) , the consultant focused on the prevailing Market data and carried out a demand forecasting up until 2028 (End of BOOT period). There has been a considerable growth rate in the demand of white products in Uganda and the Neighboring countries.

2.1 Oil Transportation System in Kenya and Uganda——石油运输系统在肯尼亚和乌干达

As earlier mentioned, Kenya has an already functional oil products pipeline to the major cities operated by KPC. In addition to the pipeline, the country relies on rail and road transportation for distribution of the products to the remaining towns. Uganda on the other hand relies mainly on road transportation from Kenya and distribution within the country.

2.2 Market Opportunities for the Pipeline——管道的市场机会

The main driver of the project was to ensure efficient distribution of petroleum products to Uganda. However there are a number of neighboring countries, relying on road transportation of their petroleum products supply through Uganda that would also benefit from the pipeline. These include Rwanda, Burundi, North Western Tanzania and Eastern Congo. The delays caused by long distance hauling add to the final fuel costs. The pipeline will therefore serve a bigger market beyond Uganda. With the new discoveries, depending on the quantities of crude discovered in Uganda, the pipeline will be used later on in transporting white Oil products from Uganda refineries to the Kenya Port of Mombasa for distribution to the wider international market[28].(责任编辑:anne)



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