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经济学留学生论文写作:什么是敏感性分析,以及它是如何运用

时间:2016-08-08 09:30来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien
什么是敏感性分析,以及它是如何运用
What is Sensitivity Analysis and how is it used
 
敏感性分析是用来检查组织的模型的结构的变化。在敏感性分析的帮助下,任何人都可以确定参数的模型的值的变化,它是足够敏感的。我们可以很容易地评估和建立模型的帮助下的敏感性分析。敏感性分析可以检查与模型的参数相关联的不确定性。当有困难的数量时,难以计算系统动力学模型的不同参数,难以估计模型的参数值,这是不确定的。敏感性分析是测量参数的准确性的重要工具,这将需要使模型在现实的情况下是有效的和有用的。
 
"A statistical technique in which inputs are changed one at a time or in combination while the effect upon a particular variable such as output, sales, or profits is observed. For example, price, packaging, and size are changed to determine the effect upon sales."
 
EXPLANATION 解释
Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the changes in the structure of the organization's model. With the help of sensitivity analysis, anyone can determine the changes in terms of parameter's values of model that how it is sensitive enough. We can easily evaluate and build the model with the help of sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis could examine the uncertainties which are associated with model's parameters. It is difficult to calculate the different parameters of system dynamics models when there are difficult quantities, and it is difficult to estimates the parameters values of the models which are uncertain. Sensitivity analysis is important tool to measure accuracy of parameter which will require to make model valid and useful in realistic scenarios. When we gets result that the model is insensitive with the help of sensitivity analysis, than we could estimate the possible in the model, but we can know the reasonable parameter values. It is an important technique to better understand the dynamics of a system modeller. Experimentation with a variety of values may include the conduct of a procurement system in extreme situations. The discovery that the very system behaviour changes for a change in the parameter value can identify a starting point in the parameters of the model and individuals, and the value can significantly influence the mode of system behaviour. The sensitivity analysis is a strategy that is useful in determining what might happen if a particular variable does not work inside a projection, as originally intended. The idea is the possible variations that occur when one or more variables can identify changed or deleted, and how these changes affect the final result. From this point of view, makes this type of analysis can be prepared for other outcomes that the desired target, thus minimizing the negative impact if these variables do not meet or influence than expected. In the process of conducting a sensitivity analysis, it is possible for each factor or variable that is relevant to verify the expected results. For example, if a company expects a new product is an increase of 20 per cent annual earnings as a result, the analysis, what the result would be concerned if the response of consumers were only half as excited as originally planned. As part of the development of different scenarios that work in which a particular variable, as expected, the issue of increased costs to be considered for raw materials also determine the impact that this increase would earn the profits they have a new product line. Although there are exceptions, a sensitivity analysis is not usually include the development of scenarios that occur in a certain potential for reality to come. But to focus the process of identification and projection of the results when certain variables that occur at least a realistic possibility, however. For this reason, the sensitivity analysis tends to be somewhat 'under the facts and use these facts in the creation of alternative scenarios. What is a reasonable scenario is slightly different from one sector to another, and is very much about general economic conditions and factors affecting the sector in which it operates and the internal workings of the company shall apply.(责任编辑:BUG)


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