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Economics Assignment:货币危机成因与银行危机

时间:2018-05-18 08:48来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien
根据我的阅读资料,我发现货币危机常常伴随着银行危机,在货币危机之前,甚至在两者之间没有显著的关系。那么,为什么货币危机常常伴随着银行危机呢?在本文中,我将讨论如何可能出现这样的问题,根据历史的角度来看,在那些经历了双重危机的国家。下一个问题是资本管制的有效性和可取性,作为发展中国家可以控制突然资本流入或流出的手段。这正是资本管制的可信性受到质疑的问题,是否应该认真考虑这些限制政策制定者的实施。分析1994年墨西哥比索危机、1997年亚洲金融危机和1998年俄罗斯金融危机中的重大经济灾难,对这些经济形势进行分析是非常重要的。
 
Introduction 简介
 
Based on my readings, I have found that currency crises often accompanied by banking crises or banking crises preceded by currency crises or even has no significant relationship between the two. So, why are currency crises often accompanied by banking crises? In this paper, I will discuss on how such problem may occur based on historical perspective, in which the countries that have experienced Twin Crises. The next issue is the effectiveness and desirability of capital controls as a means by which developing countries can manage sudden capital inflows and/or outflows. This is where the credibility of capital controls are being challenged whether such restriction should be taken into a serious consideration for the policymakers to implement. It is important to analyse these economic situations due to past economic disasters in which the issues stated were significant in the 1994 Mexican peso crisis, 1997 Asian Financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis.
 
Twin Crisis 孪生危机
 
The simultaneous occurrence of currency crises and banking crises is known in economic term as Twin Crises, introduced by economists Carmen Reinhart and Graciela Kaminsky in the late 1990s. This phenomenon became a common problem in financially liberalized emerging market economies in the 1990s which started with the 1994 Mexican crisis, followed with the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) did an extensive research on the relationship between financial and banking crises for 20 countries and over a 25-year sample and found that banking crises often precede currency crises. The mechanism basically relies on two features. Firstly, governments hold a fixed exchange rate system and secondly, a mismatch between domestic assets and foreign liabilities by domestic banks, thus, exposing to exchange rate risks( Goldstein, Itay 2005 ).
 
A currency crises, also known as the Balance of Payment crises,is a situation in which a nation is suffering from a chronic balance of payment deficit. This problem exists when a nation is unable to finance the imports and debt repayments. The country’s central bank would be in a doubtful position whether, given the fixed exchange rate, it has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to maintain the value of domestic currency. Government often intervenes by using the country's own currency reserves or its foreign reserves to satisfy the excess demand for a given currency ( Wikipedia, 2014 ). It came to a period when these emerging market economies were experiencing rapid economic growth, creating massive capital inflows, which will then lead to the crises.(责任编辑:cinq)


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