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东南亚金融危机:使用明斯基方式消除错觉

时间:2015-11-13 13:36来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien
东南亚金融危机:使用明斯基方式消除错觉


1.引言
海曼明斯基的金融不稳定假说似乎非常适用于亚洲金融危机。不足为奇,尽管许多评论家可能一直受他思想的影响,但很少有人明确试图以此为基础来分析这场危机。例如,1998年11月,整个《剑桥经济学杂志》上都在分析亚洲危机、但它只有一篇文章直接提及明斯基。为了填补分析残缺, 本文对明斯基的研究表明它确实提供了一个亚洲金融危机令人信服的解释和一个有重要意义的政策。
一个因素可能导致忽视如此丰富的潜在来源的理解是,显然与开放亚洲金融危机的本质不同, 明斯基的模型设定在一个封闭的经济框架。另一个原因是,他的研究早于当前金融自由化的时代。在本文的下一节,我们认为他的“金融不稳定假说“实际上可以很容易扩展到开放的经济,“自由化”案例。在这种理论基础上,本文的第三部分旨在具体提出明斯基在东南亚金融危机的适用性。而第四部分将 解释Minskyan拒绝对立的账户,而是发展重大政策影响的讨论,最后,提供了一些结论。
 
 
1 INTRODUCTION 引言
Hyman Minsky’s ‘Financial Instability Hypothesis’ would seem to have obvious application to the recent experience of financial crisis in Asia. It is therefore a matter of surprise that, while many commentators may have been influenced by his ideas, so few have attempted to use them explicitly as a basis analysing the crisis. The whole of the November 1998 issue of the Cambridge Journal of Economics, for example, was devoted to the crisis in Asia. Yet it contained just one direct reference to  Minsky (1986). In an attempt to fill the analytical gap, this paper seeks to build on Minsky’s work to show that it does indeed offer the basis for a convincing interpretation of the crisis in Asia and one which has important implications for policy.
One factor which may have contributed to the neglect of so rich a potential source of understanding is that, in contrast to the patently open nature of the Asian crisis, Minsky’s model is developed within a closed economy framework. Another is that his work predates the current era of financial ‘liberalisation’. In the next section of this paper, we argue that his ‘Financial Instability Hypothesis can in fact be extended readily to the open-economy, ‘liberalised’, case. On this theoretical basis, the paper’s third section proceeds to put forward a specifically Minskyan account of the road to financial crisis in South East Asia, whilst the fourth section considers and rejects a number of rival explanations in favour of this Minskyan account. Major policy implications of the discussion are then developed, before, finally, some conclusions are offered.
Minsky's vision was that ‘the normal functioning of our economy leads to financial trauma and crises ... (I)n short, ... financially complex capitalism is inherently flawed’ (Minsky 1986, p.287, italics in original). In contrast, the conventional wisdom of today is that markets ‘work’. On this latter view, the proposition that the source of financial crisis must be exogenous to the financial system and located either in government failure or ‘shocks’ (or both) is taken as more or less axiomatic truth. Equally, the fact that financial crisis and the spread of financial ‘liberalisation’ have coincided in Asia can only be regarded as a matter of chance.(责任编辑:cinq)


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