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旅游业与经济增长的关系 Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth

时间:2017-12-22 15:27来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien
虽然国际贸易与经济增长之间的关系在过去的几年里在文献中得到了广泛的应用,但对于旅游业、经济增长、贸易和旅游业来说,缺非常的少见。本研究采用协整分析和Granger因果关系检验来检验塞浦路斯旅游业、贸易和增长之间的长期关系,以及它们之间的因果关系方向。结果表明,旅游业与经济增长和贸易没有完全结合,而后两者是协整的,旅游者的到达与增长、出口与增长之间以及塞浦路斯进出口之间存在双向因果关系。最后,研究结果表明塞浦路斯旅游者对出口增长的单向因果关系。
 
ABSTRACT 摘要
Although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years, this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism. This study employs co-integration and Granger causality tests to examine long-run relationship between tourism, trade and growth, and the direction of causality among themselves for Cyprus. Results reveal that tourism is not co-integrated either with growth or trade whereas latter two are co-integrated and there is bidirectional causation between tourist arrivals and growth, between exports and growth and finally between exports and imports in Cyprus. Finally, results suggest unidirectional causation from tourist arrivals to export growth in Cyprus.
 
I. INTRODUCTION 简介
International tourism and international trade are two major sources of foreign exchange for small countries as well as larger ones. Small countries, in particular small islands, have more dependency on tourism and trade than the larger ones since their economies are based on only a few sectors. For example, according to Kuznets (1966), as the country gets smaller, its dependency on international trade would increase. On the other hand, although many economists agree that small countries have similar advantages and disadvantages when compared to larger ones, there are differences in the origin of these disadvantages. Among common disadvantages are international tourism/trade dependency, vulnerability, high population growth rate, limited labor force, low labor efficiency, diseconomies of scale, low GDP (Gross Domestic Product), high dependency on imports of intermediate and consumption goods, and production of only a few basic goods/services.
 
The small size of a country, in terms of area and population, may be economically advantageous. The smallness of a state in terms of area and population may in fact be a source of comparative advantage rather than being a constraint on economic growth and development. Specifically, smallness may be more than compensated by certain unique characteristics possessed by small states. Export-oriented services tend to represent such uniqueness and, therefore, a basis for a potential comparative advantage (Mehmet and Tahiroglu 2002).(责任编辑:BUG)


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