英国兰卡斯特大学 (Lancaster University)：关于对谢佩岛机场是在原有基础上扩大还是新建一个机场的论述

Airport expansion or a new airport
扩大机场还是建一个新机场

Supplementary to the discussion of further provision of air travel capacity is the two competing views of whether this capacity should come from further expansion of current airports or development of an entirely new location, or both.
补充讨论进一步提供空中旅游接待能力是两个对立的观点，是否应该来自这方面的能力进一步扩大目前的机场或开发一个全新的位置，或两者兼而有之。

Always the most important advantage to expansion of current assets is the cost, which is generally significantly cheaper than building a new airport outright. In addition, in terms of both cost and timescales, the current transport and services infrastructure can be used and upgraded, and new capacity can more easily be built into current air traffic routes and management. Expansion avoids major changes in airports’ market share and it is better supported by the current airport operators. In addition, frequently expansion proposals suggest lower environmental impacts.
扩大流动资产总是最重要的优势是成本，通常是明显比建设一个新机场彻头彻尾的便宜。此外，在成本和时间尺度，目前的运输和服务的基础设施，可以使用和升级，新的产能更容易被内置到目前的空中交通航线和管理。

The other viewpoint is that construction of an entirely new airport may allow full control over potential scale and hence a new airport will obviously be able to better cope with higher levels of demand. This in turn will have a better effect of the UK’s economic value and status. Building from new will allow from the beginning integration of the most sustainable design, will help reduce air traffic flying directly over London, and can be better planned to allow for future expansion. In addition, new projects will be tied to transport upgrades, local regeneration and possible renewable energy provision. All this however comes at a significantly greater cost, which must be offset by the greater potential for demand.
另一种观点是，建设一个全新的机场可能超过潜在规模，并允许完全控制，因此新机场将显然能够更好地应对更高层次的需求。英国的经济价值和地位反过来，这将有较好的疗效。

This proposal looks only at the feasibility of new airport, though it is anticipated further expansion of current airports will be likely in the long-term to supplement this.
这一提议看起来只有在新机场的可行性，尽管预计将有可能进一步扩大，目前的机场长期补充。

Forecasts
预测

Many forecasts in demand for air travel have been made over the past decades to assess air travel demand over the coming decades. The wide range of figures have in the past enabled some previous airport feasibility reports to use the most favourable figures for their particular goal. The Department for Transport (DfT) and Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) figures are the key source of data used in this report.#p#分页标题#e#
在过去的几十年里已作出了许多航空旅行的需求预测，在未来几十年。评估航空旅行需求。

Passengers
乘客

In the past ten years the DfT has made 3 major assessments of future demand for air travel.
在过去的十年中，DFT已经由3个主要评估未来对航空旅行的需求。

In 2003, the DfT’s White Paper “The Future of Air Transport” estimated unconstrained demand for air travel, which assumes no limits to potential airport expansion or development, to be 400-600 million passengers per annum (mppa). (2) In 2007 in the DfT’s “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts”, unconstrained demand in 2030 was re-estimated as 495mppa in the mid-level scenario. (5) In January 2009 the new report of the same name estimated unconstrained mid-level demand in 2030 to be 465mppa, with the growth pattern over the next 20 years assumed to be on average 7% lower than forecast in 2003 (4).
在2003年的DFT白皮书“航空运输的未来”，估计对航空旅行的需求，假定没有限制潜在的机场扩建或发展，是每年400-600万人次（MPPA）不受约束。 （2）在2007年的DFT的“英国航空乘客的需求和CO2预测”，不受约束的需求在2030年重新估计495mppa在中级情况。 （5）2009年1月新报告的同名估计不受约束的中等水平，2030年需求超过假定为平均7％，低于2003（4）预测，未来20年的增长模式，是465mppa。

Figure 2

These updated forecasts take into account new government budgets, GDP projections, oil prices and the latest aviation data. The 2009 forecasts also look as far as 2050, where demand is thought to reach 737mppa.  http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_sample/

More important for this study however is the forecast demand in the South East as the key market for the proposed airport is anticipated to be predominantly South East residents and tourists. In the 2003 forecast report more than half of this demand in 2030 was forecast to be for airports in the South East, with an estimated unconstrained demand of 301mppa. (5)

However, the 2009 forecast estimates unconstrained demand for the South East as 265mppa by 2030 (while the ‘maximum usage’ constrained scenario predicts 243mppa in 2030 but this figure only applies in the case of no new airport development). (4) In 2050 the unconstrained demand is thought to be in excess of 420mppa in the South East. (4)

The latest CAA data gives the current proportion of UK air travel demand taken by South East airports as 60%. (1) However this value is expected to fall as the South East nears capacity and other airports take some of the excess. If no further development at South East airports is permitted over the next 20 years, this will fall to 45% by 2030. (5) However, if significant development is enabled in the South East to cope with demand, this proportion may return to 55% to 60%. It can be seen the 2009 DfT forecast assumes a figure of around 57%.#p#分页标题#e#

The current major airports in the South East are the London airports of Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, London City. There are also the second tier South East airports of Southampton, Norwich, Manston, Southend, Kidlington, Cambridge, Shoreham, Lydd; and other minor airports at Farnborough, Biggin Hill, Cliffe Marshes, Alconbury.
目前主要在东南机场是伦敦的希思罗机场，盖特威克机场，斯坦斯特德，卢顿，伦敦金融城。

We base the figures used in this report on these latest 2009 figures, adjusted for the recent dip in air traffic due to the global recession. We assume that in the case of a major new London airport it is unlikely there would be major expansion work at current airports in the South East. Rather, instead we also assume that all current major airports will be operating at a maximum theoretical capacity for their current set-up in 2030. This therefore allies with the ‘Scenario s02’ in the 2009 figures. (4)
我们立足本报告中使用的数字，这些最新的2009年的数字，调整为最近的空中交通由于全球经济衰退中畅游。我们假设，在一个重要的新伦敦机场的情况下，这是不太可能会有重大的扩建工作，目前在东南机场。

In practice it is more likely that there will be some development at these current airports, and that without these developments the maximum capacity could not be easily achieved, but the ‘Scenario s02’ capacity gives at least the best conservative figures for our forecast.
在实践中很可能会有一些在这些电流机场的发展，并没有这些发展的最大容量可以很容易实现，但我们的预测情景S02的能力至少给出最保守的数字。